Optimize Coastal Ocean Prediction System (COPS)

Mooers (1999) defined ”coastal ocean” to include a 200 nautical mile wide Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), determined by United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This covers a major part of the European coastal seas (Mediterranean, North Sea, Irish Sea, Baltic Sea) and part of European shelf seas. Since EEZ is also of high national interests in marine resource exploitation and environmental protection, it naturally constitutes a major focus in operational oceanography. Prediction of physical conditions in the coastal ocean is much more mature than that of biological, chemical and ecological conditions. Parameters and ranges of the physical prediction are closely related to marine industry, environmental management, and civil and military services. Currently 48-72 hours forecasts of waves, tides, surges, ice, temperature, salinity and currents are provided in a number of European national Met-/Ocean Offices. Model resolutions ranges from 100m in local waters to 1/4 degree over shelf break. To understand the current status and future direction of operational oceanography, predictability is a key index. Here ’predictability’ means ”prediction capacity of ocean phenomenon in time, space and quality”, which is a more general concept than that in the weather prediction. Four major error sources influencing the coastal ocean predictability are: